MM2 Halloween Box Calculator: Embersickle Odds and Candy Planner

The MM2 Halloween box calculator turns your Candies and Keys into real odds. See your chance of an Embersickle or Chroma, how many Candies the battle pass still needs, and whether the Mortal Bundle is good value before the event ends on 16 November.

Official patch notes: Murder Mystery 2 official Roblox page and update log

MM2 Halloween 2026 box odds

The 2026 Halloween Box costs 600 Candies or 1 Halloween Key. Fan wikis list these rates. They are rounded and add up to just over 100%, so treat them as close, not exact.

Rarity	Item	Chance
Common	Common skins	70%
Uncommon	Uncommon skins	18%
Rare	Rare skins	8%
Legendary	Embergun	4%
Godly	Embersickle	0.2%
Chroma Godly	Chroma Embersickle	0.004%

A 0.2% chance sounds small, and it is. The MM2 Halloween box calculator works out the real odds over many boxes: about 347 boxes give a 50% chance of at least one Embersickle, and about 1,151 boxes give 90%. That is over 200,000 Candies for a coin flip.

Battle pass Candy cost

• 30 tiers. Tier 1 is free.
• Tiers 2 to 29 cost 600 Candies each, 16,800 in total.
• Tier 30, the Emberbow, costs 100,000 Candies.
• Total: 116,800 Candies. One wiki says 117,400, so check the price in game.
• Odd tiers from 3 to 27 give a Halloween Key, 13 Keys in total.

Type your current tier into the MM2 Halloween box calculator and it shows the Candies left to tier 30. The 13 Keys from the pass count as free boxes, so add them to your Key total as you unlock them.

Is the Mortal Bundle worth it?

The Mortal Bundle costs 3,399 Robux and gives the Mortal (Godly knife), the Immortal (Godly gun) and the Smolder effect. The Immortal alone is 1,699 Robux. Because the bundle has no supply limit during the event, gamepass Godlies tend to trade lower than box Godlies. Type the current value from your list, and the tool shows value per 100 Robux.

How to use the MM2 Halloween box calculator

1. Type the Candies and Keys you have.
2. Leave boxes at 0 to open all you can afford, or type a number to test.
3. Enter your battle pass tier.
4. Type today’s Embersickle value from your value list.
5. Read your odds, expected value and Candies needed.

Values change fast

New event Godlies are worth the most in the first days, then drop as more boxes are opened. One snapshot from late October had the Embersickle near 100 on two value lists, down from about 900 at launch. Always check a live list before you trade. Our MM2 trade calculator compares two value lists side by side, and the Elvebredd values guide explains how the lists work.

Worked example: 12,000 Candies

Say you have 12,000 Candies and no Keys. The MM2 Halloween box calculator shows 20 boxes, with a 3.9% chance of at least one Embersickle and about 0.08% for the Chroma. On average you would get 0.04 Embersickles, which is worth about 4 value at 100 per Embersickle.

Now compare that with the battle pass. The same 12,000 Candies unlock 20 battle pass tiers at 600 each, and several of those tiers give free Halloween Keys. For most players, the pass gives far more for the same Candies, and the Keys still give you free box rolls.

If you are close to the 100,000 Candy Emberbow at tier 30, save up instead of opening boxes. The Emberbow is a guaranteed Godly, and it is one of the two items you need to craft the Emberscythe at the Cauldron.

Common mistakes during the Halloween event

• Opening boxes too early: your Candies go further in the battle pass, and the pass gives free Keys back.
• Trading on launch values: Embersickle values fall fast as more boxes are opened. Check a live list on the day you trade.
• Forgetting the deadline: Candies and Keys have no use after 16 November at 18:00 UTC. Spend them before then.
• Buying the bundle for value: the Mortal Bundle has unlimited supply during the event, so buy it because you like the knife and gun, not to trade for profit.

The MM2 Halloween box calculator saves your numbers in this browser, so you can come back each day and update your Candies as you play.

Final thoughts on the MM2 Halloween box calculator

Boxes are a gamble, and the MM2 Halloween box calculator shows how big that gamble is. If your Candies only cover a few dozen boxes, the battle pass or a straight trade may be the better use. Check back before 16 November, since unused Candies have no use after the event. Browse more free tools in our tools directory.

Frequently asked questions

How much is an MM2 Halloween Box?

Each 2026 Halloween Box costs 600 Candies or 1 Halloween Key.

What are the Embersickle odds?

Fan wikis list the Godly Embersickle at 0.2% per box and the Chroma Embersickle at 0.004%.

How many boxes for a 50% Embersickle chance?

About 347 boxes, or 208,200 Candies, give a 50% chance of at least one Embersickle.

When does the MM2 Halloween event end?

The event ends on 16 November 2026 at 18:00 UTC.

How many Candies is the full battle pass?

Tiers 2 to 29 cost 600 each and tier 30 costs 100,000, so 116,800 Candies in total.

How do I get the Emberscythe?

Combine an Embersickle and an Emberbow at the Cauldron. The Emberbow is the tier 30 battle pass reward.

Does the MM2 Halloween box calculator save my numbers?

Yes. Your inputs are saved in this browser, so you can update your Candies each day without typing everything again.

Are the box odds official?

No. The rates come from fan wikis and guide sites. Nikilis has not published official odds for the 2026 Halloween Box.

Figures come from official notes and community guides published around launch. Patches can change them, so double-check anything important in game.

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